Saturday, January 2, 2010
The four most dangerous words
... in investing are "This time it's different". Sir John Templeton. Popular media, adverts, word-on-the-street
all seem to be in agreement that a fundamental shift has occurred in the American attitude towards work, life, investing,
etc. But what behavior has changed? State and federal government continue to spend far in advance of the taxpayer's
ability and/or willingness to pay. The subsidy for home ownership has increased substantially during the recession,
which was at least partly caused by this subsidy. As a result, homes remain overvalued in many markets. And has
the decline in the U.S. consumer's appetite for gadgets and luxuries been driven by a change in attitude, or by the crimping
of available credit? Smart-phone adoption surpassed 20% by recent estimates, and Blu-ray players were among the hottest
items for holiday spending.
So it appears plausible we are entering a new cyclical boom-bust cycle,
or more likely haven't finished the last one. The imbalanced mortgage market remains a worry, particularly the large,
new participation by the Fed. The bank has accelerated
their purchases of agency MBS in the past six weeks,
adding 17% to reach a balance of $909 billion in the 3rd week of December. Plans are to top out at $1.25 trillion, representing
about one-fourth of all outstanding agency MBS, or 1/8th of all outstanding mortgage debt. These balances are still
valued at face value, i.e. stated valued of the outstanding principal of the underlying mortgages. So the Fed's
balance sheet contains a substantial chunk of assets that will likely be written down in the next year or so. And can
the Fed stop or slow their purchases without causing a rise in mortgage rates, and sharp drop in home prices. Will they
have the willpower to do so, or resume propping up the residential market despite a recovering economy?
Mortgage
and MBS Market data from:
Fed Flow of funds, http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1r-2.pdf
and
SIFMA
research, http://www.sifma.org/uploadedFiles/Research/Statistics/SIFMA_USBondMarketOutstanding.pdf
8:24 pm est
Friday, May 29, 2009
Newspaper Teaser Rates
The
last few days, I’ve been in a full-blown polymudgeon freakout over the amazing teaser rate offered by the Wall Street
Journal. Having just upped my annual renewal for $349, combined print and online, I saw an ad offering
the same year-long services for only $140. Of course, the catch is you need to be a “new” subscriber.
I called WSJ customer service to argue that such a steep jump wasn’t fair, and they should cut my renewal rate
a bit. The poor rep couldn’t do anything about that, so I tried to puzzle out with her how I could
game the system, which I’ll get more into below. The more interesting question is whether such steep
new customer discounts can produce profitable long-term clients.
Teaser rates are as old as
publishing, but I think I would have noticed such a steep discount in the past, so the discounts have probably been increased
during the recession. Most newspapers receive a much lower proportion of their revenues from subscriptions
than the WSJ, relying more proportionately on advertising and newsstand sales, so I thought I’d compare with two other
papers of near-equivalent reach and reputation, the Washington Post and New York Times. So from their own online subscription
pages (with phone follow-up for the renewal rate at the Washington Post), the comparative discount follow:
New Weekly Term
of Weekly Rate Discount
Subscriber Rate Reduced Rate
for Renewals
WSJ $ 2.59/week
54
6.71 61%
WP $1.11
26
4.41 75%
NYT $6.70
12
13.4 50%
I
adjusted the WSJ subscription teaser rate from the advertised rate to account for the 2 free weeks that are included.
The WSJ subscription is combined print and online, while the Washington Post and NY Times offer most of their content
free online, so the rates should be comparable. The one major difference is that the WP and NYT subscription
includes new issues 7 days a week, while the WSJ is only 6 days.
For a full year, the WSJ and WP offers are nearly equivalent.
The WSJ’s introductory rate offers 61% for a full year. The WP would be 75% off for half year,
and then full price for the rest of the year, resulting in an effective full year discount of 62.5%. So
what do these steep discounts mean to renewal conversions?
The first thought is an obvious increased incentive to game the system.
Since I live in a household with two adults, it appears from talking to the customer rep that I could cancel the existing
subscription, get the new subscriber rate through the other name. Then repeat in reverse at the end of
the year, because the definition of a new subscriber counts those who have lapsed several months before. (I didn’t get
the exact period, but it’s less than a year.)
Most customers wouldn’t take the time this switching would cost,
so I think the more likely occurrence is anger at the first increased bill, followed by immediate cancellation.
In the language of economics, newspaper subscriptions aren’t a network product, where the customer is locked-in
once they have used for a given period of time. They may become accustomed to a favorite columnist, feature
or slant of a given paper, but currently many of those are offered free online. Even if some papers begin
to charge for their prime content, there will be plenty that do not.
The basic problem for newspapers
remains the same. Their marginal cost of delivery has dropped to near-zero. Innovations
for content aggregation and presentation seem to me the only way up. One possibility might be a daily customizable,
question-driven news aggregator, to reduce the required browsing time, and help organize information into knowledge.
That might be a service worth paying for, but such a scheme would be facilitated by a micro-payment system.
6:24 pm est
Sunday, May 24, 2009
The Deepest Desire
Suggested Memorial Day music.
Joyce DiDonato, The Deepest Desire.
The
renowned mezzo-soprano with the compelling voice performs songs from three American composers, Bernstein, Copland and Heggie.
All the selections are settings of the words of American poets and writers, exploring life, love, death and the search
for spirituality. .
The tile selection,
The Deepest Desire, by Jake Heggie, is subtitled Four Dramatic Songs of Praise, and chronicles the successful
search for meaning and spirituality of Sister Helen Prejean, in her own words. Sister Helen Prejean’s
work with death row inmates inspired her book Dead Man Walking, and the resultant movie and Jake Heggie opera. (Ms.
DiDonato has performed the Sister Helen role in the opera.) The four pieces for piano, flute and mezzo-soprano,
proceeds from the calling, through the struggle, to the epiphanic, “Is there life before death?”.
The concluding song, Primary Colors, is the most effective blending of the three performers, as well as the
most inspiring, describing, in the composer’s words, “the peaceful contentment that comes from having journeyed
well.”
The five Bernstein
songs are settings of love poems, including two by Rainer Maria Rilke, which are the only two pieces by non-Americans on this
CD. The interesting parallels between Bernstein and Rilke might be material for future meditation, but
for now I’ll concentrate on what I consider the highlights of the selections.
Aaron Copland’s song cycle of Emily Dickinson poems cover the breadth of the poet’s emotion,
from nature, loves found and lost, poetic inspiration found and lost (or at least doubted, as in “When they come back
if blossoms do”). The cycle concludes with The Chariot, the poet’s personal depiction
of the afterlife.
The initial impetus for this post was an
up-to-now un-noticed connection between “The Chariot”, and a composition from a more modern lady, Liz Phair.
Emily Dickinson focuses on the driver and his easing of the transition:
Because I would not stop for Death
He kindly stopped for me;
The carriage
held but just ourselves
And Immortality.
We slowly drove, he knew no
haste,
And I had put away
My labor, and my leisure too,
For
his civility.
….
The Chariot, 1856, by Emily Dickinson
Ms. Phair’s version of the initial moments of the afterlife is a bit more frenetic, but she
displays a similar concern for the mode of transportation, and in particular getting left behind.
As I stumble into bed, I curse
the devil in my head
And if I die before I wake, I hope the
Lord won’t hesitate
To pluck my coffin from the ground
He need not heed the neighbors now
And throw me up for all to see,…
…
Well I don’t know, but I’ve been told
The road to heaven is paved with gold
And if I die before I wake, I need a ride
From you.
Ride, 1998, words and music by Liz Phair
from whitechocolatespaceegg, Matador 1998.
The notion of catching a ride to heaven is as old as the concept of heaven, but it is interesting
that both these women focus on the being driven part, despite their somewhat different backgrounds. Contrast
this with another well-known male New England poet, who at the time had no intention of relinquishing the reins.
The
woods are lovely, dark and deep.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.
Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening, 1922, Robert Frost
Maybe it’s not gender, but time and place that explains the difference. From
the traditional, gentle ride to heaven prior to the Civil War, to the feeling of control and choice in the 1920s, to a more
current attitude of chaos and drift.
Postscript: For another Dickinson connection, check out
the Vigilantes of Love, Blister Soul, in which they spin out a first line from Dickinson, A certain slant of light, into a beautiful pop song.
3:17 pm est
Friday, May 22, 2009
Oberlin Conservatory at the Kennedy Center
This week attended the
free performance of Oberlin Conservatory students at the Kennedy Center, part of the on-going Conservatory Project, which concludes on Monday, May 25. If you follow the link, you can download an archived video of the
performance (requires RealPlayer download).
It is definitely recommended,
particularly if you like lively performances from a variety of styles, from the Baroque (Couperin) to the modern (Mayuzumi). There were pretty, flashing romantic pieces, Boehm for flute, and Liszt for piano, a Beethoven string quarter, and a challenging new student composition.
The highlight for me was Bunraku by Toshiro Mayuzumu, a solo cello performance by Arnie
Tanimoto. Bunraku is a traditional form of Japanese puppet theater, which may explain the jerky rhythms and experimental bowing and plucking
techniques in some parts. Other parts had swooping phrases with dramatic repetition, somewhat reminiscent
to me of Benjamin Britten, if he had used Japanese harmonies and sonorities anyway.
The recent student composition was the most challenging piece of the evening. The
Four Falsehoods, by Ran Duan (Composer’s Notes included below), was a tone poem, or more accurately a tone drama,
for soprano, violin, cello, two various woodwinds, and piano played by the composer. Alas, as we had arrived
late, I didn’t have a chance to read the composer’s notes till afterwards, they are very helpful to following
the “action”. The piece was interesting, but in summation, I found it too busy.
A chaotic overlapping of experimental sounds and themes, which perhaps was the point. But I prefer
to be given a little space to absorb the dissonance. Nonetheless, “too many notes” has been
a common criticism of fine compositions by musical dilettantes in the past, so feel free to ignore this one.
Composer’s
Notes
by Ran Duan
Copied from the program to accompany a
performace of his composition,“The Four Falsehoods”, at the Kennedy Center, May 19, 2009.
“I often search for
the meaning of truth and wonder which part of my life is real or not. Throughout my life, things that are
mysterious, beautiful, enjoyable, funny, and scary have fascinated me. However, after a moment (perhaps
as short as five minutes or as long as two years), I find myself in disbelief that these things are not real.
In Four Falsehoods, I am trying to present these unreal things, the falsehoods. In the
first movement, the singer who is portrayed as a magician whispers words that do not have any meaning. She
appears to articulate some magical spell while the instrumentalists reflect upon the spell as if it is real. But
by the end of the piece, the ensemble disappears alluding that the magician doesn’t need them any longer or perhaps
they don’t exist at all.”
4:29 pm est
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Industrial Mother's Day
Noted an interesting link
between two weekend articles, from rather disparate sources. "What a Mom Wants", by Megan Basham in the Friday Wall Street Journal, and "Hacking the Spaces", by Johannes Grenzfurthner and Frank Apunkt at Monochrom (pointed out by Cory Doctorow blogging on boingboing).
Ms. Basham leads with a salient characteristic of the current recession,
namely that 80% of the layoffs to date have been male. The Mother’s Day angle is that many of these
families are making do with the mother’s putting in more hours at work and the fathers taking care of home and kids.
The author has collected some evidence that social liberals see this trend as an unforeseen positive impact of the
downturn, and are exploring ways to retain the structure when the economy rebounds. But a more interesting
countertrend is the individual stories that appear to indicate the women don’t like the new social structure, while
many of the men are fine with it. It seems the problem isn’t that too many women are forced to stay
home with the kids, but too many men are forced to go to work.
Few of us enjoy going to work on
a regular basis. Even those of us fortunate enough to enjoy our actual tasks a majority of the time, would
prefer another environment to do them. Or a shorter trip to it, or a different set of co-workers, or better
lighting, or many other improvements.
Now we get to the second article, which
is all about one outgrowth of the 60’s counter-culture, which was (and is) the tech culture’s attempt to re-invent
the workplace. The conclusion of the article is that capitalism is too efficient to ignore the good ideas
that arose. Rather the system co-opts those structures that perpetuate it.
“Sociological termed "third spaces" are spaces that break through the dualistic scheme of
bourgeois spatial structure with places to live and places to work (plus places for spare time activities). They represent
an integrative way that refuses to accept a lifestyle which is formed through such a structure.”
So
again the objection is not the work itself, but the spatial (and presumably timing) setup of the work. Translating
the “bourgeois” adjective as the social structures that organically arose to support industrialization, we still
seem to be fighting the industrial revolution.
Two
hundred-plus years and counting, and still no one’s happy with the industrial set-up. Of course,
no one was likely happy being a peasant either. They just didn’t have the time and energy to futz
about it.
9:00 pm est