Massive deficits and waterfalls of Fed credit and money supply obviously points to an inflationary future, but the timing of such does not appear imminent.  Crude prices rebounded in the second half of last week, and copper is in a rally, but both appear affected by China stockpiling.  Once they have added as much inventory as their current export flow demands, stockpiling should end, at least until the developed economies rebound.  Thus, the current debate regarding the shape of the U.S. recovery is the primary uncertainty (V, L, or W?).  For insight about the meaning of current earnings reports, the Spy blog makes a compelling case for a very broad-bottomed U. 

 

The only certainty - with current supply of short-term Treasuries ramping up to buy everything from bank stock to long-term bonds, and the expected deficits pushing the likely supply even further, as soon as quality issues are less on the minds of investors, Treasury prices will be near a bubble state.

There are many signs of spring in Northern Virginia.  Azaleas starting to bloom, soccer games in the cul-de-sac.  But my favorite is the new duds donned by the goldfinches of the neighborhood.  Like the azaleas, the goldfinches are here year-round, but in comparatively shabby attire during the fall and winter.  The first glimpses of their shiny spring plumage comes in early April, and by now they are completely made-over.  This morning, I could count six males at one time flitting through the bushes, and competing for time at the thistle feeder.  Perhaps it's time for new beginnings all round.

The Station Agent. Three unique and interesting individuals dealing with loneliness and loss in their own way, finding a connection, set in New Jersey.  What more could you ask for?

Empire of the Sea: The Siege of Malta, the Battle of Lepanto, and the Contest for the Center of the World.  By Roger Crowley, 2008.

 American Lightning: Terror, Mystery, the Birth of Hollywood, and the Crime of the Century. By Howard Blum, 2008.

Dominion of Memories: Jefferson, Madison and the Decline of Virginia. By Susan Dunn. Recently posted a  review.